多学科自律思维体系

 新闻资讯     |      2021-11-21 10:01
本文摘要:生意业务和投资自己属于跨学科的知识体系。而投资和生意业务自己直接涉及到风险,因此我们必须建设一套行之有效的认知体系+知识体系+跨学科的思维以资助我们预判局势,而且捕捉被错误订价/被低估的生意业务以及投资时机。这个民众号的使命也在于升级我所有读者的思维体系,通过大量的阅读和吸收知识建设起独立思考,明晰的行为模式。最终到达知行合一。 下面我通过总结知名投资人/对冲基金司理/投资人对于这套思维系统的认知来做一个抛砖引玉,资助列位建设更深的认知。

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生意业务和投资自己属于跨学科的知识体系。而投资和生意业务自己直接涉及到风险,因此我们必须建设一套行之有效的认知体系+知识体系+跨学科的思维以资助我们预判局势,而且捕捉被错误订价/被低估的生意业务以及投资时机。这个民众号的使命也在于升级我所有读者的思维体系,通过大量的阅读和吸收知识建设起独立思考,明晰的行为模式。最终到达知行合一。

下面我通过总结知名投资人/对冲基金司理/投资人对于这套思维系统的认知来做一个抛砖引玉,资助列位建设更深的认知。“We shall not cease from exploration. And the end of all our exploring. Will be to arrive where we started. And know the place for the first time.” T S Elliot“我们不会停止探索。竣事我们所有的探索。

将会到达我们开始的地方。并第一次知道这个地方。” 艾略特“The incessant concentration of thought upon one subject, however interesting, tethers a man’s mind in a narrow field” Sir William Osler威廉•奥斯勒爵士(Sir William Osler):“思想不停地集中在一个主题上,无论何等有趣,都将一小我私家的思想束缚在狭窄的领域”“Good decision making is pragmatic and eclectic. Oblique approaches rely on a tool kit of models and narratives rather than any simple or single account. To fit the world into a single model or narrative fails to acknowledge the universality of uncertainty and complexity.” John Kay良好的决议是务实和折衷的。

如此隐晦的方法依赖于模型和叙述的工具包,而不是任何简朴或单一的帐户。使世界适应单一模型或叙述无法认可不确定性和庞大性的普遍性。

” 约翰·凯“A mental model is simply a representation of how something works. They are how we simplify complexity, why we consider some things more relevant than others, and how we reason. Using them increases your clarity of understanding, providing direction for the choices you need to make and the options you want to keep open.” Shane Parrish“心理模型只是事物运作方式的代表。它们是我们简化庞大性的方式,为什么我们认为某些事物比其他事物更相关,以及我们如何推理。使用它们可以增加您的明白清晰度,为您需要做出的选择和想要保持选择的偏向提供指导。” 肖恩·帕里什(Shane Parrish)"The quality of our thinking is proportional to the models in our head and their usefulness in the situation at hand." Shane Parrish“我们的思维质量与我们头脑中的模型及其在当前形势下的有用性成正比。

” 肖恩·帕里什(Shane Parrish)“When the world is changing so profoundly, it helps to have strong mental models for reference. Mental models must be flexible.” Baillie Gifford“当世界如此深刻地变化时,有助于建设强大的心理模型以供参考。心理模型必须灵活。” 贝利·吉福德“Investment decisions are more likely to be correct when ideas from other disciplines lead to the same conclusions. That is the top most payoff – broader understanding makes us better investors… True learning and lasting success come to those who make the effort to first build a latticework of mental models and then learn to think in an associative, multi-disciplinary manner.” Robert Hagstrom当来自其他学科的想法得出相同的结论时,投资决议更有可能是正确的。

这是最大的回报–广泛的相识可以使我们成为更好的投资者……真正努力学习和持久乐成的人,首先要努力建设思维模型的基础,然后学会以关联的,多学科的方式思考。” 罗伯特·哈格斯特罗姆(Robert Hagstrom)"Since no single discipline has all the answers, we need to understand and use the big ideas from all the important disciplines - mathematics, physics, chemistry, engineering, biology, psychology, and rank and use them in order of their reliability." Peter Bevelin“由于没有一门学科能够提供所有谜底,因此我们需要明白并使用所有重要学科的重要思想-数学,物理学,化学,工程学,生物学,心理学,并对其可靠性举行排名和使用。

” 彼得·贝弗林(Peter Bevelin)"So, if your professors won't give you an appropriate multi-disciplinary approach, if each wants to overuse his models and underuse the important models in other disciplines, you can correct that folly yourself." Charlie Munger“因此,如果您的教授不会为您提供适当的多学科方法,而且每小我私家都想过分使用自己的思维模型而没有充实使用其他学科中的重要模型,那么您可以自己纠正这种愚蠢的做法。” 查理·芒格“Our core philosophy starts with the belief that making intelligent, rational decisions requires a multi-disciplinary framework that informs broad and deep understanding.” Christopher Begg“我们的焦点哲学始于这样的信念,即做出明智,理性的决议需要跨学科的框架,以促进广泛而深入的明白。” 克里斯托弗·贝格“You’ve got to learn everything. I started with physics and mathematics and I got into economics, history, law and politics. I like everything and that’s what you need. You might need models from biology.” Li Lu“您必须学习一切。

我从物理学和数学开始,然后进入经济学,历史,执法和政治领域。我喜欢一切,这就是您所需要的。您可能需要生物学模型。

” 李路"The Munger system for dealing with reality is to have multiple models in the head, and then run reality against multiple models. I think it’s a perfect disaster to look at reality through just one model or two. There’s an old proverb that says, 'To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks pretty much like a nail.' And that is not our system. So I can’t sit here and run through all the models in my head, even though there aren’t that many. But multiple models is the game." Charlie Munger芒格处置惩罚现实的系统是先拥有多个模型,然后对多个模型运行现实。我认为仅通过一个或两个模型来视察现实是一场完美的灾难。有一句古老的谚语说, “对于只有锤子的男子来说,每个问题看上去都像钉子一样。

” 那不是我们的系统。所以我不能坐在这里浏览所有脑海中的模型,纵然没有那么多。

可是,多个模型才是游戏。” 查理·芒格“If I’ve learned anything over the past decade it is this: The art of stockpicking is more about synthesizing information across disciplines and making decisions than a strict devotion to finance.” Allan Mecham“如果已往十年我学到了什么,那就是:股票的艺术选择更多的是关于跨学科综合信息和做出决议,而不是严格地投入资金。” 艾伦·麦汉(Allan Mecham)“What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang 'em back. If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form. You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience – both vicarious and direct – on this latticework of models.” Charlie Munger“什么是基本的世俗智慧?好吧,第一个规则是,如果您只能够认知伶仃事实并实验还击,您将一无所知。

如果事实不能在理论的基础上融合在一起,那么您就不会以可用的形式存在它们。您必须拥有模型。

而且,您必须在这种模型结构上摆设自己的履历-包罗替代履历和直接履历。” 查理·芒格“Discovery is one of the joys of life, and in our opinion, is one of the real thrills of the investment process. The cumulative learning that leads to what Berkshire Hathaway Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger calls ‘Worldy Wisdom’. Worldly wisdom is a good phrase for the intellectual capital with which investment decisions are made and, at the end of the day, it is the source of any superior investment results we may enjoy.” Nicholas Sleep“探索新的领域是生活的兴趣之一,而且我们认为,这是投资历程的真正兴趣之一。累积的学习结果导致伯克希尔·哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)副主席查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)称之为“世界通用的智慧”。

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世俗的智慧对于做出决议的智力资原来说是个好短语,而且归根结底,它是我们可以享受的任何卓越投资结果的源泉。” 尼古拉斯"Some people think in words, some use numbers, and still others work with visual images. I do all of these, but I also think using models." Ed Thorp“有人用言语思考,有人用数字思考,另有一些人用视觉图像事情。我做了所有这些事情,但我认为使用数学模型将有助于我们认知世界。

” 埃德·索普“By constantly practicing and adding to our mental-model toolkit, we can (hopefully) continually expand our advantage over those who never curate such a toolkit.” Chris Sosin“通过不停训练并添加到我们的心理模型工具包中,我们可以(希望)不停扩大我们的优势,使其逾越从未应用并接纳过这种工具包的人们。” 克里斯·索辛“The only antidote for being an absolute klutz due to the presence of a man with a hammer syndrome is to have a full kit of tools. You don’t have just a hammer. You’ve got all the tools. And you’ve got to have one more trick. You’ve got to use those tools checklist-style, because you’ll miss a lot if you just hope that the right tool is going to pop up unaided whenever you need it. But if you’ve got a full list of tools, and go through them in your mind, checklist-style, you will find a lot of answers that you won’t find any other way.” Charlie Munger“由于存在锤子综合症的人(看什么都像螺丝钉),唯一的绝对解毒药是拥有全套工具。你不只是锤子。

您拥有所有思维工具。而且,您还必须拥有另一个技巧。您必须使用清单样式的那些工具,因为如果您只希望正确的工具会在需要时自转动出,那么您将会错过许多工具。可是,如果您拥有完整的工具列表,并以清单形式在脑海中浏览它们,那么您会发现许多其他方法无法找到的谜底。

” 查理·芒格"Your models will — if you’re paying attention, your models will be somewhat better the more years you’ve spent really observing and not just trying to make everything fit into what you saw the first few years." Warren Buffett“您的模型将会—如果您关注的话,那么您花费了许多时间举行真正的视察后,您的模型会更好一些,而不仅仅是实验使所有内容都适合您最初几年所看到的。” 沃伦·巴菲特“You have to be naturally interested and curious about everything – any kind of businesses, politics, science, technology, humanities, history, poetry, literature, everything really effects your business. It will help you. And then occasionally you will find a few insights out of those studies that will give you tremendous opportunities that other people couldn’t think of.” Li Lu“您必须对一切事物自然地发生兴趣和洽奇-任何种类的企业,政治,科学,技术,人文,历史,诗歌,文学,一切都市真正影响您的企业。它会资助你。

然后,有时您会从这些研究中发现一些看法,这些看法会给您带来其他人无法想到的庞大时机。” 李路“You’ve got to mesh many different disciplines into one. That’s our edge.” Marc Lasry“您必须将许多差别的学科划分为一个学科。

那是我们的优势。” 马克·拉斯里“When .. we have enticed the college graduate into our graduate schools, we at once encourage him to grow professional blinders which will confine his vision to the narrow research track, and we endeavour – often successfully – to make out of him a truffle-hound, or if you prefer, a race-horse, finely trained for a single small purpose and not much good for any other” Jacob Viner 1950 …. Viner argued that academic departments needed to encourage their students in broader intellectual fields since solving real world problems was likely to involve skills learned in several different disciplines. Charlie Munger, long-time Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has encouraged a similarly multi-disciplinary approach to investment, a proposal which Marathon has consistently echoed.” Marathon Asset management“当..我们诱使该大学结业生进入我们的研究生院时,我们立刻勉励他生长专业的瞽者,将他的视野局限于狭窄的研究领域,而且我们通常会乐成地努力使他成为得以找出松露的猎犬,或者,如果您愿意的话,投资者可以是训练有素的赛马,只为一个小目的而已,对其他任何项目都没有太大利益。” Jacob Viner 1950…。Viner认为,学术部门需要勉励他们的学生进入更广泛的知识领域,因为解决现实世界中的问题可能涉及在差别学科中学习的技术。

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的恒久副主席查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)勉励接纳类似的多学科投资方法,马拉松对此一贯表现赞同。——马拉松资产治理“For some odd reason, I had an early and extreme multi-disciplinary cast of mind. I couldn’t stand reaching for a small idea in my own discipline when there was a big idea right over the fence in somebody else’s discipline. So I just grabbed in all directions for the big ideas that would really work. Nobody taught me to do that; I was just born with that yen.” Charlie Munger“出于某些奇怪的原因,我有一个早期且极端的跨学科思维。当别人的学科上有一个大想法时,我不能忍受自己学科中的一个小想法。

因此,我只是四处寻找真正可行的大创意。没有人教我这样做。我刚出生时就带着那日元。

” 查理·芒格“You have to realize the truth of biologist Julian Huxley’s idea that ‘Life is just one damn relatedness after another’ So you must have the models, and you must see the relatedness and the effects from the relatedness.” Charlie Munger“您必须认识到生物学家朱利安·赫黎(Julian Huxley)的想法,即'生活只是一个活该的亲密关系。因此,您必须拥有模型,而且必须看到这种亲缘关系以及这种亲缘关系所发生的影响。” 查理·芒格“I have been in the business since 1973, so I have been looking at companies for a long time. There are a lot of things in my head. There are a number of different models of the kinds of business or situations that can work. It may be the local monopoly concept, the low-cost commodity producer concept, the consolidated industry that has come down to a few competitors, a basic essential service that isn’t going to stop growing, or an industry that may be growing too slowly to attract any competition. So, there are a lot of different models.” Glenn Greenberg“自1973年以来我一直从事这项业务,因此我一直在寻找公司。

我脑子里有许多工具。可以运作的业务或情况有许多差别的模型。可能是当地垄断观点,低成本商品生产者观点,归结为少数竞争者的整合行业,不会停止增长的基本基本服务,或者可能是增长太慢的行业 吸引任何竞争。

因此,有许多差别的模型。” 格伦·格林伯格"We don’t really use screens. Instead, we use ‘mental models’ which help us find good investments. Some examples of these are the capital cycle, the power of incentives and insider ownership." James Seddon, Hosking Partners“我们实际上并没有使用电脑屏幕。

相反,我们使用了“心理模型”来资助我们找到良好的投资。这些例子包罗资本周期,激励机制和内部人所有权。” James Seddon,Hosking互助同伴“Mental models are what we use to see opportunity and act with more conviction more quickly.” Yen Liow“心理模型是我们用来看到时机并更快地坚定信念地接纳行动的方式。

” 颜柳(Yen Liow)“It’s kind of fun to sit there and out think people who are way smarter than you are because you’ve trained yourself to be more objective and more multi-disciplinary. Furthermore, there is a lot of money in it, as I can testify from my own personal experience.” Charlie Munger“坐在那里坐下来思考比您更智慧的人是一种兴趣,因为您已经训练了自己变得越发客观和跨学科。而且,其中有许多钱,因为我可以凭据自己的亲身履历作证。

” 查理·芒格"If you have the patience and if you have the interest to really dig deep, then what you're going to find is if it's commonly held information or known information, you may come up with insights that others have not. This is what Charlie Munger talks about the latticework of mental models. You look at things through a different lens to try to see what can be different." Mohnish Pabrai“如果您有耐心,而且有兴趣真正深入,那么您将发现,如果它是常用信息或已知信息,您可能会想出其他人没有的看法。这就是查理 芒格谈到心智模型的框架。

您通过差别的眼光看待事物,试图发现有什么差别。”—— 莫希尼·帕布雷(Mohnish Pabrai)"Professor Newcomb taught [me] not only political economy, but philosophy, logic ethics, and psychology - all in one course. Today these subjects would be fragmented among several professors. I believe there was considerable advantages in being taught all these subjects by the same man. Too many educators seem to have forgotten that you cannot teach good economics, good politics, good ethics, or good logic unless they are considered together as parts of one whole. Colleges as a rule teach economics badly. With over-specialisation has also come a tendency to mistake information for education, to turn out ‘quiz experts’ who are crammed full of useful detail but who have not been trained how to think." Bernard Baruch“纽科姆教授不仅在一门课程中教授政治经济学,而且还教授哲学,逻辑伦理学和心理学。如今,这些学科将疏散在几位教授之中。

我相信,通过这些学科教授所有这些学科具有很大的优势。太多的教育者似乎已经忘记,除非将它们一起视为一个整体的一部门,否则您就无法教授良好的经济学,良好的政治,良好的道德或良好的逻辑。也有将信息误认为教育的趋势,效果是“考试专家”充斥着许多有用的细节,但却没有受过如何思考的训练。

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” ——伯纳德·巴鲁克"It's a multi- disciplinary habit that fosters some creative thinking. Throughout the week between conversations about business - specific objectives we will tend to revisit further questions and insights somebody has read on the subject. Subjects are typically in the large data sets of physics, biology, and human history." Christopher Begg“这是一种多学科的习惯,可以养成一些缔造性的思维。在有关业务特定目的的对话之间的整个一周中,我们将倾向于重新审视人们对这个主题已经读过的其他问题和看法。

这些主题通常在物理的大型数据集中, 生物学和人类历史。” ——克里斯托弗·贝格"At its heart, investing is a multi-disciplinary endeavour. Thus, one has to know a little about everything to make informed decisions." Jake Rosser“从本质上讲,投资是一项多学科的事情。因此,人们必须对一切都相识一点,以便做出明智的决议。

” 杰克·罗瑟(Jake Rosser)"Our expectations of the future are derived from our mental models of how the world works, and every event is an opportunity to learn and improve those models." Philip Tetlock“我们对未来的期望源于我们对世界运转方式的思维模式,每项运动都是学习和革新这些模式的时机。” 菲利普·泰特洛克“The important thing with the (mental) models is that they tell you that the world works differently than you would think the world works. And that's what gives you an edge.” Mohnish Pabrai“(心理)模型的重要之处在于,它们告诉您世界的运作方式与您认为世界的运作方式差别。这就是给您带来优势的原因。

” 莫希尼·帕布雷(Mohnish Pabrai)"There's no rule that you can't add another model or two even fairly late in life. In fact, Ive clearly done that. I got most of the big ones quite early [however]." Charlie Munger“没有规则划定您甚至不能在生命的晚期添加另一个或两个模型。事实上,我已经清楚地做到了。

我很早就获得了大多数大型模型。” ——查理·芒格“A lousy way to do memory prediction is X happened in the past, therefore X will happen in the future. It’s too based on specific circumstances. What you want is you want principles. You want mental models. The best mental models that I have found have come through evolution, game theory, and Charlie Munger. He has tons and tons of great mental models. Nassim Taleb has great mental models. Benjamin Franklin had great mental models. I basically load my head full of mental models. Different ones apply to every situation.” Naval Ravikant“糟糕的影象预测方法是X发生在已往,因此X会在未来发生。这也是凭据特定情况而定。

您想要的是您想要的原则。您需要心理模型。我发现最好的心理模型来自进化,博弈论和查理·芒格。

他拥有无数伟大的心理模型。Nassim Taleb具有精彩的思维模式。本杰明·富兰克林有很好的思维模式。我基本上是满脑子都是精神模型。

每种情况都适用差别的情况。” ——水师拉维坎特“I like to think I’m always improving the craft. I’ve taken some good things from many different activities; finance, accounting, the arts, or engineering or history, or psychology - you can use a lot of good lessons from all those human activities and try to synthesize kind of a global mind that has a lot of ways of seeing the world.” Francois Rochon``我想我一直在提高工艺水平。

我从许多差别的运动中罗致了许多利益;金融,会计,艺术,工程,历史或心理学–您可以从所有这些人类运动中罗致许多名贵的履历教训,并实验综合一种具有许多相识世界的方式的全球思维。” ——弗朗索瓦·罗雄“The mental models approach seeks to assemble a box with many tools. The idea is to learn the big ideas from many disciplines. What are the main ideas from psychology? Sociology? Linguistics? Anthropology? Biology? And on and on. In many cases you don’t have to be a deep expert to get leverage from a big idea.” Michael Maboussin``心理模型方法试图组装具有许多工具的盒子。这个想法是从许多学科中学习大想法。

心理学的主要思想是什么?社会学?语言学?人类学?生物学?等等。在许多情况下,您不必成为一个深厚的专家就可以从一个伟大的想法中获得使用。

” ——迈克尔·马布森“You must think in a multi-disciplinary manner. You must routinely use all the easy-to-leqarn concepts from the freshman course in every basic subject. Where elementary ideas will serve, your problem solving must not be limited, as academia and many business bureaucracies are limited, by extreme balkanization into disciplines and subdisciplines, with strong taboos against any venture outside assigned territory.” Charlie Munger``你必须以多学科的方式思考。您必须在每个基本科目中定期使用新生课程中所有易于学习的观点。在基本思想将起作用的地方,您的问题解决决不能受到限制,因为学术界和许多企业权要机构都受到限制,因为极端地将其划归学科和子学科,而且强烈阻挡在指定地域以外的任何企业。

查理·芒格。


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